What are Par Sectionals and FSP?
Building on our Par Time model, we use machine learning to determine the optimal pace for the track and race conditions (going, class, distance, etc.). We do this by analysing the sectionals of winning horses in races that achieve the best Time Index scores. Based on advice from experts we work with, horses that run most efficiently will achieve the best race times, and this is what we compare all runners against in order to calculate the ‘Par Sectional’ times.
Using these Par Sectionals we can also contextualise the Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of a race, relative to the track it is run on. This gives us our Par FSP. The FSP compares the speed of the final sections of the race with the race as a whole, and the Par FSP gives us an instant comparison as to whether that is ‘faster’, ‘slower’ or ‘Par’ compared with what we expect.
For example, the six furlong track at Epsom has a Par FSP of around 103%, but the 1m4f course, which starts stiffly uphill, has a Par of around 112%. This is because they are likely to run ‘steadily’ to start on the 1m4f track as there is a stiff uphill climb, unlike the downhill start on the 6f track.
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The benefits of Par Sectionals and FSP
When comparing sectionals to ‘Par’ we provide five thresholds from Very Slow to Very Fast.
This unlocks detailed context into whether a horse has run ‘evenly’ (in line with Par) or inefficiently through a race.
Especially in Britain and Ireland where it can be difficult to compare performances across different race tracks, sectionals alone can be misleading. The Par Sectionals and FSP give us a clear understanding of whether a horse has made best use of its energy through a race, and therefore achieved the best possible result. At a basic level, it highlights when the pace is strong early in a race and suited those towards the rear, or steady early, favouring those with more pace.
Both metrics illustrate when jockeys have made tactical moves to dictate the race themselves, steadying the pace mid race to fill a horse’s lungs, or injecting pace at a certain point to try and ‘slip the field’. It also helps identify where horses can be suited by certain types of run styles. This allows analysts and punters to assess how a race will suit each runner, and participants to adjust tactics according to what they have learnt from previous races.
Why are Par Sectionals and FSP so popular?
The extensive range of uses for Par Sectionals and FSP soon become clear to users and give instant context to a horse race for broadcaster, fans and participants:
- Pre Race: Using the Par Time, we can show how fast we expect each race section to be run in, even before the race commences
- In Race: By comparing the actual sectionals to these predicted race sectionals, we have live context about the pace of the race, powering informative In-Race graphics and insights
- Post Race: By assessing the actual race time and sectional distributions, we unlock a comprehensive illustration of a horse race, and how it unfolde
Through these metrics, RaceiQ can ensure that everyone has access to simple and engaging insights, and a deeper understanding of our sport, creating exciting and innovative narratives across all platforms.
Par Sectionals and FSP examples
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What the experts say
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“RaceiQ Par Sectionals have revolutionised Sectional time analysis by layering expectation on top of achievement. They shed light on the numbers bringing them to life and, in so doing, provide a vivid picture of how races are run.”
Angus McNae
Analyst and Presnter, Racing TV
